The post’s title says it all: “Where Will Bookstores Be Five Years From Now?”
If you take Shatzkin’s premise that e-books will comprise 50% of the book market in five years (which is current conventional wisdom in the industry; Shatzkin actually thinks that’s conservative), he estimates that brick and mortar stores’ share of the marketplace will likely plummet from approximately 72% of the market today to 25% in five years. (The other 25% in the print market will be made up of print sales via online booksellers.)
72% to 25%. Five years. Yowza.
These last few years have been incredibly tumultuous for the industry. The recession and the Great Digital Transition combined forces to wallop the industry, and the effects are everywhere: shrinking lists, closing imprints, shuttering indie stores, a vanishing mid-list, and belt-tightening across the board.
Things changed a lot in a short period of time. And it’s still quite possible that these last few years were a relative walk in the park compared to what’s to come.
If 75% to 25% transpires it will have huge implications for the way books are planned, marketed, acquired, published, and discovered. Everything from the seasonal publishing calendar to print runs to marketing campaigns will be in for reevaluation.
As I’ve said before, people are still buying and reading books. The ease of access afforded by e-books might even mean they’ll buy more when they can download a book at home rather than planning a trip to the bookstore. To be sure, there is lots still to be worked out on the author side, including paltry royalties and more reliance on authors for platforms and buzz-making.
But the challenges the industry is facing are on the distribution side of things — it’s literally a massive shift in how text gets from author to reader (and how reader discovers author). Anyone who is part of the paper side of things is going to feel the squeeze.
Still, even as seemingly everything changes, there’s a lot that will remain the same. Authors will still write books, publishers will still be the go-to place to put a book together and market it, there will be self-publishing for those who want to go it alone, and readers will have still more choice and ease of access. E-readers are steadily getting more affordable ($99 Sony Readers sold out in the blink of an eye) and contrary to the doomsayers, e-books are not an existential threat to the world of literature. Words are words are words are words no matter how you read them (you’re reading pixels now, ain’t ya?)
It’s certainly a wild ride, but it’s a roller coaster, not a death spiral.